Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri Aug 23, 5:09PM CDT

Corn futures were cents 2 1/4 to 3 1/2 cents lower at Friday’s close. The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour reported a projected a total corn yield of 163.3 bpa, with production at 13.358 bbu on 81.8 million harvested acres. For the week speculators in corn futures and options bailed on the net long position by 100,954 contracts to a net short position of 56,441 contracts on Tuesday. China announces an additional 10% tariff on US corn and sorghum as of Dec 15. While China has not been a large importer of corn recently, the loss of potential ethanol, DDGs and sorghum buying is being felt. China on Friday threatened to raise tariffs another 10% on US wheat, corn and sorghum effective December 15.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $3.59 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.67 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $3.80, down 3 cents

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures finished Friday’s trade session 10 1/4 to 12 3/4 cents lower. Meal futures were down $3.80/ton, with soy oil down 20 points. China announced a 5% increase to the tariffs on US soybeans, taking them to 30% starting on Sept. 1. President Trump responded to the tariff increase by adding 5% to tariffs on the $250 billion already in place to 30% on Oct 1 and taking the tariffs on $300 of Chinese goods from 10% to 15% on Sept 1. The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour final report estimated total soybean production at 3.497 bbu on an average yield of 46.1 bpa. Soybean speculators increased their net short positions by 5,982 contracts to 72,432 contracts on August 20.

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.43 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.56 1/2, down 12 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.71 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $8.85 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybean Meal closed at $289.90, down $3.80,

SEP 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.34, down $0.20

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures were mixed across the three markets Friday, with MPLS up 1/4 cents, KC was down by 1 3/4 cents, with CBT higher by 8 cents. Managed money in CBOT flipped their net position to short 1,249 contracts as of 8/20 a move of 5,337 contracts. They were also short a net 36,956 contracts in KC wheat futures and options on that date. In MPLS wheat they were at another record net short of 20,338 contracts. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed YTD accumulated shipments at 20% of the USDA full year projection, vs. the average at 21% and 17% last year. Unshipped sales are lagging behind the average, as total commitments are 39% of that projection with the average of 45% and last year’s 35%.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.75 1/4, up 8 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.91 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.98 3/4, up 1/4 cent

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended Friday trading 35 cents lower in Aug and down $1.7 in Oct. Feeder cattle futures were down $1.05 to $ 3.175 in most contracts. USDA showed cattle on feed for August 1 at 11.112 million head, 0.17% larger than last year but below most estimates. Placements during July were 1.705 million, down 2.12% from 2018. Marketings were 6.89% higher than last year at 2.002 head, with one more marketing day this July. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $1.83 cents higher on August 22 at $139.72. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday. Choice boxes were down $1.76 at $237.52, with Select boxes $3.20 lower @ $212.71. The USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter through Saturday at 654,000 head, 3,000 head more than the previous week, and 12,000 more head the same week last year. A few cash trades have been reported at $105-106 in the South, with $108-110 live in the North.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $104.625, down $0.350,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $99.400, down $1.700,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $104.300, down $1.800,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.350, down $1.050

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.250, down $3.175

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $132.525, down $2.950

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures ended down the limit in Oct, with nearby contracts $2.225 to $2.775. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 36 cents at $77.04 on August 21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value is down $.29 on Friday morning at $79.65. The national average base hog value was down $1.39 in the Friday PM report at $66.15. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter through Saturday was 2.528 million head, a 36,000 head increase from the previous week and 7,000 head more than the same week a year ago. Chinese retail pork prices have risen 46% since earlier this year, the Chinese Ag Ministry announced. The Chinese hog herd has been reduced by a third due to ASF, while Chinese pork imports have double from the levels of last July, according to Reuters. Pork in Cold Storage at the end of July dropped to 601.790 million pounds, a 19 million pound reduction from June. A drop is typical for July, and puts the inventory level similar to 2016 but still the second largest on record behind 2015. New Chinese tariffs increasing by 10% are slated to begin Sept. 1, and will result in US pork having tariffs totaling 72%.

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $59.300, down $3.000,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $58.775, down $2.775

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $66.350, down $2.225

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures closed trading lower by 63 to 80 points lower day. China announced addition tariffs on several US ag goods this morning in retaliation to the US tariff implementation on $300 billion in Chinses goods in September and December. Of those cotton was included with 5% in tariffs added to US goods on Sept 1. President Trump responded by adding 5% of hit own to the tariffs on a total of $550 billion in Chinese goods starting on Sept 1 ($300 billion) and Oct 1 ($250 billion). Commitment of Traders data showed specs in cotton futures and options trimming 3,443 contracts from their net short potion to 41,199 contracts. Export commitments of US upland cotton are now 49% of the USDA export projection, with the average at 43% for this time. The Cotlook A Index was higher 70 points on August 22 at 71.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is now 52.57 cents/lb, good through next Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 58.07, down 80 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 58.18, down 76 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 59.07, down 79 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 60.13, down 63 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.