Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri Aug 23, 12:25PM CDT

Corn futures are 3 to 4 1/2 cents lower at midday. The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour finished up in Minnesota yesterday, with the national Pro Farmer estimate set to be released at 1:30 p.m. CDT. The Minnesota tour average yield was 170.4 bushels per acre, with Iowa at 182.8 bpa. China announces an additional 10% tariff on US corn and sorghum as of Dec 15. While China has not been a large importer of corn recently, the loss of potential ethanol, DDGs and sorghum buying is being felt. China on Friday threatened to raise tariffs another 10% on US wheat, corn and sorghum effective December 15. Reuters reported spot bids for corn from ethanol plants in the Midwest at steady or higher.

SEP 19 Corn is at $3.59, down 4 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.66 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $3.78 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.87, down 3 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are trading mostly 11 to 13 1/4 cents lower. Meal futures are down $3.60/ton and soy oil was down 31 points. China announced a 5% increase to the tariffs on US soybeans, taking them to 30% starting on Sept. 1. This will not make much difference as Chinese private companies have stopped purchases of US soybeans, as state buyers (exempt from tariffs) are making some purchases. President Trump replied by stating he will be responding to the tariff increase this afternoon and US companies should find alternatives, further pressuring the markets. The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour wrapped up on Thursday with legs through MN and IA, again finding pod counts below last year for those routes. USDA’s current national average yield estimate is 6% below year ago.

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.42 3/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.55 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $8.70 1/2, down 12 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $8.84, down 11 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybean Meal is at $290.10, down $3.60,

SEP 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.23, down $0.31

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are mixed across the three markets at midday, with MPLS steady. KC is 1 to 3 cents lower, with CBT firm to 3 cents higher. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed YTD accumulated shipments at 20% of the USDA full year projection, vs. the average at 21% and 17% last year. Unshipped sales are lagging behind the average, as total commitments are 39% of that projection with the average of 45% and last year’s 35%. China announced a 10% tariff increase on US wheat effective December 15.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.70 1/4, up 3 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $3.90 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $4.98 1/2, unch,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are down 37.5 cents in Aug and $2.20 lower in Oct. Feeder cattle futures are $1.40 to $4.25 lower in most contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 70 cents lower on August 21 at $137.89. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday. Choice boxes were down $1.40 at $237.88, with Select boxes $1.89 lower @ $214.02. The USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter through Thursday at 462,000 head, 1,000 head less than the previous week, and 8,000 fewer head the same week last year. Beef in Cold Storage at the end of July was at 455.102 million pounds, up 12.19% from June and still 6.02% lower than 2018. A few cash trades have been reported at $105-106 in the South, with $108-110 live in the North.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $104.600, down $0.375,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $98.900, down $2.200,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $103.825, down $2.275,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $137.000, down $1.400

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $132.175, down $4.250

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $131.400, down $4.075

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are down the limit in Oct, with nearby contracts $2.325 to $2.775, lower at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 36 cents at $77.04 on August 21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value is up $0.19 on Friday morning at $80.13. The national average base hog value was down $1.02 in the Friday AM report at $65.10. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter through Thursday was 1.444 million head, a 27,000 head increase from the previous week and 60,000 head more than the same week a year ago. Chinese retail pork prices have risen 46% since earlier this year, the Chinese Ag Ministry announced. The Chinese hog herd has been reduced by a third due to ASF, while Chinese pork imports have double from the levels of last July, according to Reuters. Pork in Cold Storage at the end of July dropped to 601.790 million pounds, a 19 million pound reduction from June. A drop is typical for July, and puts the inventory level similar to 2016 but still the second largest on record behind 2015. New Chinese tariffs increasing by 10% are slated to begin Sept. 1, and will result in US pork having tariffs totaling 72%.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $59.300, down $3.000,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $58.775, down $2.775

FEB 19 Hogs are at $66.250, down $2.325

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 25 to 83 points lower at midday. The dollar is strong, at near 1 year highs. China announced addition tariffs on several US ag goods this morning in retaliation to the US tariff implementation on $300 billion in Chinses goods in September and December. Export commitments of US upland cotton are now 49% of the USDA export projection, with the average at 43% for this time. The Cotlook A Index was higher 70 points on August 22 at 71.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is now 52.57 cents/lb, good through next Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 58.62, down 25 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 58.11, down 83 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 59.08, down 78 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 60.16, down 60 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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